An interesting take on the World Economic Forum, and Patriot Act
II
1) This is a widely circulated email written by a highly honored,
very credible journalist who attended the World Economic
Forum. Her candid thoughts make for some fascinating
reading. She is reportedly very upset that this email has
gotten out. We are editing references which would identify
her, though her identity is something of an open secret now.
The writer has received a Peabody, a Polk and a Pulitzer. She
has two doctorates and lives in New York.
------------------------ Forwarded Message-------------------
A candid "State of the Ruling Class"
Report from Davos
****** ******* [*******]
Hi Guys. OK, hard to believe, but true. Yours truly has been
hobnobbing with the ruling class.
I spent a week in Davos, Switzerland at the World Economic Forum.
I
was awarded a special pass which allowed me full access to not
only
the entire official meeting, but also private dinners with the
likes
the head of the Saudi Secret Police, presidents of various and
sundry
countries, your Fortune 500 CEOS and the leaders of the most
important NGOs in the world. This was not typical press access.
It
was full-on, unfettered, class A hobnobbing.
Davos, I discovered, is a breathtakingly beautiful spot, unlike
anything I'd ever experienced. Nestled high in the Swiss Alps, it's
a
three hours train ride from Zurich that finds you climbing
steadily
through snow-laden mountains that bring to mind Heidi and
Audrey
Hepburn (as in the opening scenes of "Charade"). The EXTREMELY
powerful arrive by helicopter. The moderately powerful take the
first
class train. The NGOs and we mere mortals reach heaven via
coach
train or a conference bus. Once in Europe's bit of heaven
conferees
are scattered in hotels that range from B&B to ultra luxury
5-stars,
all of which are located along one of only three streets that
bisect
the idyllic village of some 13,000 permanent residents.
Local Davos folks are fanatic about skiing, and the slopes are
literally a 5-15 minute bus ride away, depending on which
astounding
downhill you care to try. I don't know how, so rather than come
home
in a full body cast I merely watched.
This sweet little chalet village was, during the WEF, packed
with
about 3000 delegates and press, some 1000 Swiss police, another
400
Swiss soldiers, numerous tanks and armored personnel carriers,
gigantic rolls of coiled barbed wire that gracefully cascaded
down
snow- covered hillsides, missile launchers and assorted other
tools
of the national security trade. The security precautions did not,
of
course, stop there. Every single person who planned to enter
the
conference site had special electronic badges which, upon being
swiped across a reading pad, produced a computer screen filled
color
portrait of the attendee, along with his/her vital statistics.
These
were swiped and scrutinized by soldiers and police every few
minutes
-- any time one passed through a door, basically. The whole
system
was connected to handheld wireless communication devices made by
HP,
which were issued to all VIPs. I got one. Very cool, except when
they
crashed. Which, of course, they did frequently. These devices
supplied every imaginable piece of information one could want
about
the conference, your fellow delegates, Davos, the world news,
etc.
And they were emailing devices --- all emails being monitored,
of
course, by Swiss cops.
Antiglobalization folks didn't stand a chance. Nor did Al
Qaeda.
After all, if someone managed to take out Davos during WEF week
the
world would basically lose a fair chunk of its ruling and
governing
class POOF, just like that. So security was the name of the
game.
Metal detectors, X-ray machines, shivering soldiers standing in
blizzards, etc.
Overall, here is what I learned about the state of our world:
- I was in a dinner with heads of Saudi and German FBI, plus
the
foreign minister of Afghanistan. They all said that at its peak
Al
Qaeda had 70,000 members. Only 10% of them were trained in
terrorism
-- the rest were military recruits. Of that 7000 [terrorists],
they
say all but about 200 are dead or in jail.
- But Al Qaeda, they say, is like a brand which has been
heavily
franchised. And nobody knows how many unofficial franchises have
been
spawned since 9/11.
- The global economy is in very very very very bad shape. Last
year
when WEF met here in New York all I heard was, "Yeah, it's bad,
but
recovery is right around the corner". This year "recovery" was a
word
never uttered. Fear was palpable -- fear of enormous fiscal
hysteria.
The watchwords were "deflation", "long term stagnation" and
"collapse
of the dollar". All of this is without war.
- If the U.S. unilaterally goes to war, and it is anything short of
a
quick surgical strike (lasting less than 30 days), the
economists
were all predicting extreme economic gloom: falling dollar
value,
rising spot market oil prices, the Fed pushing interest rates
down
towards zero with resulting increase in national debt, severe
trouble
in all countries whose currency is guaranteed against the
dollar
(which is just about everybody except the EU), a near cessation
of
all development and humanitarian programs for poor countries.
Very
few economists or ministers of finance predicted the world
getting
out of that economic funk for minimally five-10 years, once the
downward spiral ensues.
- Not surprisingly, the business community was in no mood to
hear
about a war in Iraq. Except for diehard American Republicans, a
few
Brit Tories and some Middle East folks the WEF was in a foul,
angry
anti-American mood. Last year the WEF was a lovefest for
America.
This year the mood was so ugly that it reminded me of what it
felt
like to be an American overseas in the Reagan years. The rich
--
whether they are French or Chinese or just about anybody -- are
livid
about the Iraq crisis primarily because they believe it will
sink
their financial fortunes.
- Plenty are also infuriated because they disagree on policy
grounds.
I learned a great deal. It goes FAR beyond the sorts of questions
one
hears raised by demonstrators and in UN debates. For example:
- If Al Qaeda is down to merely 200 terrorists cadres and a
handful
of wannabe franchises, what's all the fuss?
- The Middle East situation has never been worse. All hope for
a
settlement between Israel and Palestine seems to have evaporated.
The
energy should be focused on placing painful financial pressure on
all
sides in that fight, forcing them to the negotiating table.
Otherwise, the ME may well explode. The war in Iraq is at best
a
distraction from that core issue, at worst may aggravate it.
Jordan's
Queen Rania spoke of the "desperate search for hope".
- Serious Islamic leaders (e.g. the King of Jordan, the Prime
Minster
of Malaysia, the Grand Mufti of Bosnia) believe that the
Islamic
world must recapture the glory days of 12-13th C Islam. That
means
finding tolerance and building great education institutions and
places of learning. The King was passionate on the subject. It
also
means freedom of movement and speech within and among the
Islamic
nations. And, most importantly to the WEF, it means flourishing
free
trade and support for entrepreneurs with minimal state
regulation.
(However, there were also several Middle East representatives
who
argued precisely the opposite. They believe bringing down
Saddam
Hussein and then pushing the Israel/Palestine issue could
actually
result in a Golden Age for Arab Islam.)
- US unilateralism is seen as arrogant, bullyish. If the U.S.
cannot
behave in partnership with its allies -- especially the Europeans
--
it risks not only political alliance but BUSINESS, as well.
Company
leaders argued that they would rather not have to deal with US
government attitudes about all sorts of multilateral treaties
(climate change, intellectual property, rights of children, etc.)
--
it's easier to just do business in countries whose governments
agree
with yours. And it's cheaper, in the long run, because the
regulatory
environments match. War against Iraq is seen as just another
example
of the unilateralism.
- For a minority of the participants there was another layer of
Anti-
Americanism that focused on moralisms and religion. I often
heard
delegates complain that the US "opposes the rights of
children",
because we block all treaties and UN efforts that would support
sex
education and condom access for children and teens. They spoke of
sex
education as a "right". Similarly, there was a decidedly mixed
feeling about Ashcroft, who addressed the conference. I attended
a
small lunch with Ashcroft, and observed Ralph Reed and other
prominent Christian fundamentalists working the room and bowing
their
heads before eating. The rest of the world's elite finds this
American Christian behavior at least as uncomfortable as it
does
Moslem or Hindu fundamentalist behavior. They find it awkward
every
time a US representative refers to "faith-based" programs. It's
different from how it makes non-Christian Americans feel - -
these
folks experience it as downright embarrassing.
- When Colin Powell gave the speech of his life, trying to win
over
the non-American delegates, the sharpest attack on his comments
came
not from Amnesty International or some Islamic representative --
it
came from the head of the largest bank in the Netherlands!
I learned that the only economy about which there is much
enthusiasm
is China, which was responsible for 77% of the global GDP growth
in
2002. But the honcho of the Bank of China, Zhu Min, said that
fantastic growth could slow to a crawl if China cannot solve
its
rural/urban problem. Currently 400 million Chinese are urbanites,
and
their average income is 16 times that of the 900 million rural
residents. Zhu argued China must urbanize nearly a billion people
in
ten years!
I learned that the US economy is the primary drag on the global
economy, and only a handful of nations have sufficient internal
growth to thrive when the US is stagnating.
The WEF was overwhelmed by talk of security, with fears of
terrorism,
computer and copyright theft, assassination and global
instability
dominating almost every discussion.
I learned from American security and military speakers that, "We
need
to attack Iraq not to punish it for what it might have, but
preemptively, as part of a global war. Iraq is just one piece of
a
campaign that will last years, taking out states, cleansing the
planet."
The mood was very grim. Almost no parties, little fun. If it
hadn't
been for the South Africans -- party animals every one of them --
I'd
never have danced. Thankfully, the South Africans staged a
helluva
party, with Jimmy Dludlu's band rocking until 3am and
Stellenbosch
wines pouring freely, glass after glass after glass....
These WEF folks are freaked out. They see very bad economics
ahead,
war, and more terrorism. About 10% of the sessions were about
terrorism, and it's heavy stuff. One session costed out what
another
9/11-type attack would do to global markets, predicting a far,
far
worse impact due to the "second hit" effect -- a second hit
that
would prove all the world's post-9/11 security efforts had
failed.
Another costed out in detail what this, or that, war scenario
would
do to spot oil prices. Russian speakers argued that "failed
nations"
were spawning terrorists --- code for saying, "we hate
Chechnya".
Entire sessions were devoted to arguing which poses the greater
asymmetric threat: nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.
Finally, who are these guys? I actually enjoyed a lot of my
conversations, and found many of the leaders and rich quite
charming
and remarkably candid. Some dressed elegantly, no matter how
bitter
cold and snowy it was, but most seemed quite happy in ski clothes
or
casual attire. Women wearing pants was perfectly acceptable, and
the
elite is sufficiently multicultural that even the suit and tie
lacks
a sense of dominance.
Watching Bill Clinton address the conference while sitting in
the
hotel room of the President of Mozambique -- we were viewing it
on
closed circuit TV -- I got juicy blow-by-blow analysis of US
foreign
policy from a remarkably candid head of state. A day spent with
Bill
Gates turned out to be fascinating and fun. I found the CEO of
Heinekin hilarious, and George Soros proved quite earnest about
confronting AIDS. Vicente Fox -- who I had breakfast with --
proved
sexy and smart like a-- well, a fox. David Stern (Chair of the
NBA)
ran up and gave me a hug.
The world isn't run by a clever cabal. It's run by about 5,000
bickering, sometimes charming, usually arrogant, mostly male
people
who are accustomed to living in either phenomenal wealth, or
great
personal power. A few have both. Many of them turn out to be
remarkably naive especially about science and technology. All of
them
are financially wise, though their ranks have thinned due to
unwise
tech-stock investing. They pay close heed to politics, though
most
would be happy if the global political system behaved far more
rationally -- better for the bottom line. They work very hard,
attending sessions from dawn to nearly midnight, but expect the
standards of intelligence and analysis to be the best available
in
the entire world. They are impatient. They have a hard time
reconciling long term issues (global warming, AIDS pandemic,
resource
scarcity) with their daily bottomline foci. They are
comfortable
working across languages, cultures and gender, though white
caucasian
males still outnumber all other categories. They adore hi-tech
gadgets and are glued to their cell phones.
Welcome to Earth: meet the leaders.
Ciao, ******
2) and, from economics to civil rights, we highly recommend that
you read the full and disturbing text of Patriot Act II at the
Center for Public Integrity. There is a war on civil rights
taking place. If you thought it couldn't happen here, you
should know that it can and is. Here's the url:
http://www.publicintegrity.org/dtaweb/report.asp?ReportID=502&L1=10&L2=10&L3=0&L4=0&L5=0
Contact Ian at: ianmasters@mail.com
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